Equis 2024 Post-Mortem

Executive Summary

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What we are trying to explain are massive shifts in the electorate over not just the last four years but the last eight. We need to explain the magnitude of that shift. That is not a uniquely Latino story — Trump improved in 9 out of every 10 counties nationwide. But we do need to explain what could have been so dramatic as to get voters to go from supporting Joe Biden in one election to Donald Trump in the next, which is what drove the shift among Latinos. And we have to explain why the Latino shift was bigger than the shift among everybody else. It is true across subgroups, whether by gender, age, urbanicity or education, that Latinos shifted more than other Americans. There were many kinds of Latinos shifting, all would say they have their different reasons for doing so. But the thing that distinguishes those who shifted, what they uniquely had in common, was that they identify as Hispanic or Latino. The pattern is best explained in terms of a constraint that used to stand between these Hispanic voters and the GOP, which then ceased to constrain. We will call this the Forcefield and come back later to how it works, and how it failed to work.

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"What we are trying to explain are massive shifts in the electorate over not just the last four years but the last eight."

All non-white voters shifted between 2016 and 2024. Among some groups, the shift started earlier, after 2012. Since 2016, Latinos have exhibited the largest shift towards Republicans of all racial groups.

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The Latino share of the electorate has also grown the most, but still lags behind eligible population gains.

"That is not a uniquely Latino story — Trump improved in 9 out of every 10 counties nationwide."

"More than 89 percent of counties in the United States shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election." Source: New York Times

"But we do need to explain what could have been so dramatic as to get voters to go from supporting Joe Biden in one election to Donald Trump in the next, which is what drove the shift among Latinos.

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Throughout pre-election cycle, Biden defectors in swing states gave Trump a bump over 2020

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Another headline where you can be dropped to

Vote-switching was a bigger factor on net than new voters, though both contributed to Trump’s Hispanic gains.

Trump abstainers would have voted for him in force; Biden abstainers were mixed. If all Latinos had voted, Trump would have done better.

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"And we have to explain why the Latino shift was bigger than the shift among everybody else. It is true across subgroups, whether by gender, age, urbanicity or education, that Latinos shifted more than other Americans. There were many kinds of Latinos shifting, all would say they have their different reasons for doing so. But the thing that distinguishes those who shifted, what they uniquely had in common, was that they identify as Hispanic or Latino."

Confidence level: High.

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“It feels like we don’t have a President…When Trump was President, it was chaotic, he was ignorant but at least he was present… and fighting for us.” (Mexican-American Trump voter, 22, Phoenix, AZ – from Equis April 2022 focus group)

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