Takeaways

In 2025, we recruited Latino voters — mostly first time Trump supporters — to participate in a longitudinal study consisting of ethnographies and regular online interviews for about a year to generate a deep understanding of their political opinions and experience of the Trump administration. 

At the beginning of the study, participants largely framed 2024 through a lens of economic frustration, dissatisfaction with Democrats, and a belief that Trump represented strength, order, and a return to stability — especially for the economy. Many expressed concerns about prices, the influx of migrants and some cultural issues where they felt Democrats were out of touch. 

These voters were optimistic that Trump would be able to get prices down and they were largely confident that immigration enforcement would target migrants who had committed serious crimes. But by the end of the first year of the study, most participants expressed disappointment because Trump had not delivered economic relief, and many had grown to reject the administration’s immigration policies due to broad targeting and the violent practices they had seen or heard about. The stories shared throughout these interviews largely reflected the trends in Equis polling, where nearly 3-in-10 Latinos who supported Trump in 2024 express disappointment or regret and the majority (65%) believe Trump has gone too far on immigration and his actions are targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation. Interviewing the participants for months on end provided a window into how individual voters came to feel this way — revealing the ongoing dynamism of the Latino electorate. 

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The Economy: Still Waiting on Relief

Across interviews, participants consistently named the economy as the top driver of their support for Trump over Harris in 2024. They were not focused on the policy debates; it was about groceries, rent, gas, childcare — costs that had become too much to handle under the Biden administration no matter how hard they worked. These voters originally associated Trump with a time when life felt more affordable, wages went further, and financial pressure felt less constant — all of which outweighed any of their concerns about him. 

But by mid-2025, the same economic issues that pushed participants toward Trump were generating frustration, disappointment, and in some cases regret about their support for him. Importantly, many described giving him grace at first — assuming that inflation and high prices were inherited problems that would take time to fix. But months into the administration, participants described adjusting household budgets, reducing spending, and becoming more cautious about financial decisions. Among those with more stable employment, the feeling was not that they were struggling to survive, but that they were struggling to advance. Many described rising costs not as a temporary disruption, but as something permanent—“the new normal.” 

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By late 2025, patience had run out as day-to-day expenses remained high and participants saw little evidence that the cost of living was being treated with urgency. In short: what drove them toward Trump began to drive them away. Participants described a growing disconnect between Trump’s campaign on affordability and what they saw the administration focusing on — immigration enforcement, cultural issues, or international conflicts — while families continued struggling to keep up with basic costs. Many described working more hours, cutting back on non-essentials, and budgeting more carefully, yet still feeling like they were treading water rather than getting ahead. This perception — that hard work was not leading to upward mobility — fueled resentment toward Democrats in 2024 and increasingly toward Trump and Republicans since. 

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Immigration: From Border Concerns to Going Too Far on Enforcement

Participants’ views on immigration underwent a noticeable shift in 2025. Perceptions that Democrats had lost control of the border, that the system was unfair to those who did things “the right way,” and that the Biden administration prioritized newer migrants over American citizens — or even other undocumented immigrants who had been in the U.S. for a long time — were central to why participants moved away from Democrats in 2024.

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By late 2025 and into 2026, however, the conversation shifted away from border management and toward the indiscriminate and sometimes violent enforcement dominating the headlines. While many participants did credit Trump for restoring a sense of order at the border, that reassurance was increasingly overshadowed by anxiety about how immigration enforcement was being carried out within the country. Participants described growing discomfort with what they perceived as a more aggressive and punitive approach, including raids, detentions, and encounters that felt intimidating or violent rather than targeted and procedural.

Critically, participants felt there was a widening gap between who they believed Trump would go after and who they saw being targeted. Most Latino Trump supporters expected enforcement focused narrowly on violent criminals and recent arrivals. But as the administration ramped up, participants increasingly saw enforcement that was targeting ordinary people: long-settled immigrants, workers, children, parents, and community members who were not a threat. 

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The paradigm flipped; immigration had previously been Democrats’ vulnerability for letting the border get out of control. By 2026, it had become a liability for Trump and Republicans who were seen as going too far with enforcement and not doing enough to prevent excessive violence, the detention of children and the separation of families. 

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Growing Cynicism Toward Trump, Republicans and Democrats

Participants described their 2024 voting decisions as grounded in immediate concerns about physical and economic security rather than identity or ideology. Many of them were first-time Trump voters and some had previously voted for Biden. By the end of the study, five out of six total participants expressed that Trump had not yet delivered on what they had hoped for when casting their ballots.

A recurring theme across interviews was that Trump and Republicans have been focused on everything except lowering prices. Participants cited immigration crackdowns, conflicts abroad, and political spectacle as distractions from what they see as the core responsibility of the government: providing opportunities for working people. Participants kept coming back to the same complaint: Trump talks a lot about illegal immigrants and chaos overseas, but groceries and rent are still expensive.

At the same time, participants’ dissatisfaction with Trump has not translated into enthusiasm for Democrats — something that has also borne out in Equis polling where Latino voters have consistently given Democrats tepid ratings this cycle. Participants’ attitudes toward Democrats remained largely consistent: distrust and disappointment. Even as some participants expressed regret about Trump, many still described Democrats as out of touch — too focused on empty promises, or cultural issues. Both Democrats and Republicans, in their telling, had the same problem: failing to prioritize the needs of hardworking Americans. For swing Latino voters like those in this study, both parties have much to do to rebuild trust, and candidates from either party have an opportunity to earn it ahead of November.

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*Two participants chose not to be featured on the site due to privacy concerns.