2025 Immigration Message Test

Methodology: We tested 7 immigration messages with Swayable using randomized controlled trial (RCT) survey experiments to see which was best at shifting Trump approval. These messages were tested in English and Spanish. The tests ran from July 3 to July 9 nationally. We collected a total of 16,580 responses, with 11,852 English responses and 4,728 Spanish responses.

Key Takeaways:

1. Across languages and subgroups, the most effective message for lowering Trump approval overall and on immigration is focused on the impact of the administration’s actions on families and children. We recommend continuing to amplify stories of overreach as proof points. 

1. The Trump administration is going too far. Instead of prioritizing violent criminals, they’re separating mothers from their children and tearing families apart, many of whom have been in the US for a long time. They even detained a high school student with no criminal record while he was on his way to volleyball practice. Separating families and targeting children doesn’t make our communities safer. 

2. El gobierno de Trump está pasándose de la raya. En lugar de priorizar a los delincuentes violentos, separan a las madres de sus hijos y separan familias, muchas de las cuales llevan mucho tiempo en Estados Unidos. Incluso detuvieron a un estudiante de secundaria sin antecedentes penales mientras se dirigía a su entrenamiento de voleibol. Separar a las familias y atacar a los niños no hace que nuestras comunidades sean más seguras.

2. In English, we also found that focusing on the unfair impact that mass deportations are having on law-abiding, hard-working immigrants is an effective approach, though less effective in Spanish. 

1. Instead of prioritizing violent criminals, they are raiding workplaces, profiling people who are out shopping or driving, detaining immigrants who are doing the right thing by going to their scheduled court hearings, and even revoking permits and protections from legal immigrants to make them targets for deportation.

2. En lugar de priorizar a los delincuentes violentos, están allanando lugares de trabajo, discriminando a personas que salen de compras o conducen, deteniendo a inmigrantes que hacen lo correcto al asistir a sus audiencias judiciales programadas e incluso revocando permisos y protecciones a inmigrantes legales para ponerlos en peligro de deportación.

3. While not as effective overall as the others, a broader “Broken Promises” message was relatively effective across groups and in both languages at lowering Trump approval. It offers a model for how to incorporate immigration alongside other key issues. 

1. Trump is breaking his promises to the American people. He told us he’d bring down the cost of living, but his tariff policies continue to increase the cost of everyday goods. He told us he’d deport violent criminals, but instead is separating parents from their children and targeting hardworking immigrants who have been here for years. He told us he’d be a peacetime president, but instead dropped bombs on Iran. He promised he wouldn’t cut Medicaid, but his budget bill would do exactly that, taking away critical healthcare coverage from over 8 million Americans while giving tax breaks to billionaires. ‍

2. Trump está incumpliendo sus promesas a los estadounidenses. Nos dijo que reduciría el costo de la vida, pero sus políticas arancelarias siguen aumentando el precio de los bienes cotidianos. Nos dijo que deportaría a criminales violentos, pero en cambio está separando a padres e hijos y atacando a inmigrantes trabajadores que llevan años aquí. Nos dijo que sería un presidente en tiempos de paz, pero en cambio bombardeó Irán. Prometió que no recortaría Medicaid, pero su proyecto de ley de presupuesto haría precisamente eso: quitaría cobertura médica esencial a más de 8 millones de estadounidenses y daría exenciones fiscales a multimillonarios.

Overall Findings:

• In English, the most effective immigration messages for lowering Trump approval overall and on immigration were the “Threat to all of us” message and the “Impact on families and kids” message. That is true for Latinos and non-Latinos. These messages were also most effective among the least politically engaged. 
• In Spanish, every message except the “Threat to all of us” message significantly lowered Trump overall job approval, but none of them shifted Trump immigration approval. This suggests Spanish-dominant Latinos may be especially persuadable on their rating of Trump relative to other Latinos and voters generally. 
• The broader “Broken Promises” message was also effective at lowering Trump approval overall and on immigration for all voters.  It also lowered Trump approval on immigration for Latinos in English. 
• Our continued attempts to find an immigration message that connects to the economy and cost of living yielded mixed results. The messages were largely effective in Spanish, but not in English. 

For full memo, please download PDF below.