May 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and Immigration

Some insights from a national poll of 2,545 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from April 16 to May 5. 

1. Trump approval is trending slightly below his 2024 support. 

Fewer Latinos approve of Trump’s job to date (38%, to 60% disapprove) than say voted for him last year (44%, to 53% voting for Harris). In all, some 15% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 currently disapprove of his performance in office. 

Key Hispanic voters appear to be turning away from Trump, at least for now:

• The Biden defectors: Latinos who supported Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024 were impactful additions to the Trump coalition in the last election. By definition, 100% of them voted for Trump. Today, 51% disapprove of his performance (just 46% approve). 
• Young men (18-34): The young Latino men in this poll voted for Trump by a +11 margin in 2024 (54-43), and they currently disapprove of Trump’s job performance by a reverse margin (44-55, or -11), and are down on both his handling of immigration (-12) and the economy (-17). 

These numbers align with an average of public polls over the last month, where Trump’s job approval was 36-58 among Hispanics, down from a 44-52 average in his first month in office. 

We are seeing cracks, but not yet a collapse.

In historical terms, this level of approval is equivalent to what we saw for Trump in his first term, prior to COVID. In the first-ever Equis wave of polling, in July 2019, Trump’s job approval was 36-59 among Latino voters in battleground states.

2. The economy, a former Trump/GOP strength, is looking more like a weakness. 

The economy was consistently Trump's top-rated issue during his previous stint in the White House, usually outpacing his overall job approval. Now, his grade on the economy (36-62) lags slightly behind his overall approval (38-60).

‍Democrats are more trusted than Republicans on the cost of living (+15) and the economy (+9) more broadly, a notable change. Last cycle, those tended to be GOP advantages. 

Even the Biden defectors now trust Democrats more on the cost of living, by a hair (+2), even though they trust Republicans more on other issue areas by double digits. 

3. On immigration, Latinos are still security-conscious, but believe Trump has gone too far on deportations. 

As we’ll discuss below, Hispanic voters still support measures to keep us safe. But by a wide 66-29 margin they believe Trump’s “actions are going too far and targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation”, ahead of believing his actions are “good and fair… If some people who are not criminals suffer because of it, it’s the price to pay to ensure our safety.”

Even 36% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 say he has gone too far. Among the Biden defectors, it is 64%. Among all moderate Latinos, 72%. 

This is consistent with a finding from prior Equis polling: Trump’s newest voters expected him to focus narrowly on the deportation of criminals and recent border-crossers and by and large did not support efforts to deport immigrants more broadly. 

Overall, views on Trump’s performance on immigration are negative (39-61, or -22), and track closely with his overall job approval. 

4. And yet: Trump has not hit rock-bottom on immigration, nor has slippage in his approval ratings transferred altogether into support for Democrats. 

As mentioned earlier, Trump's job approval seems to represent some erosion in support since the last election. But his 39% approval on immigration is likely still higher than his historic support on the issue – there is room to fall. 

And even with increasing discontent, around 1-in-5 registered Hispanics don't trust either party more than the other across issue areas. 

Among Latinos who disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, 9% still trust Republicans more on the issue, and another 25% don’t prefer either party. 

A similar share of Latinos who disapprove of Trump on the economy still don't trust Democrats more on the issue.

As focus groups conducted by Equis have demonstrated, some Latinos – especially Trump's newest voters – remain cautiously optimistic despite their concerns. It is a reminder that while for close observers of the news it feels like lifetimes have passed since January 20th, for most Latinos it feels early, and they’ve remained in a wait-and-see posture.

5. Hispanic voters believe mass deportations will tear families apart and unfairly impact “law-abiding” undocumented immigrants. 

What concerns Hispanic voters most about Trump's immigration actions is the impact that mass deportations have on otherwise law-abiding immigrants and their families. A very large share of Latinos believe mass deportations will "tear families apart, many of whom have been in the US for a long time" (73% agree, 53% strongly) and will "unfairly impact undocumented immigrants who are law-abiding members of society, work hard and pay taxes" (71% agree, 52% strongly).

6. Latinos, like all Americans, want to feel safe. 

The polling suggests that Latinos' concerns around security have not gone away:

• When asked the most important aspect of immigration for Congress to focus on, 50% choose an option that includes at least some focus on border security or enforcement.
• Support for deporting those who’ve been convicted of violent crimes is incredibly high, at 86% agreement, with support cutting across party. 

This has lingering political implications, because Latinos trust different parties on the different aspects of immigration: they trust Republicans more on “border security”, by a 10 point margin, and trust Democrats more on “immigration reform", by 8 points.

And yet safety does not only run in one direction. Some 65% of Latinos believe that President Trump's actions will make it difficult for hardworking Latinos to feel safe, by increasing racial profiling and harassing all Latinos regardless of immigration status.

7. In short, a balanced approach to immigration remains popular with Latinos. 

The closest Hispanics get to consensus in this poll is both in (a) support for deporting convicted violent criminals and (b) a belief that mass deportations will punish hard-working people and tear apart families.

Enforcement alone is not seen as enough – as is made clear by Trump's approval rating on immigration and perceptions that his administration has gone too far on deportations. In fact, when forced to rank, only about 1-in 4 Latino voters want Congress to focus on an enforcement-only approach to immigration.

While Latinos have not shed their concerns about border security, it is clear that they think Trump has overreached. What most Latinos say they want is a fair and balanced approach that both makes their communities safer (by improving security at the border to stop illegal crossings and drugs and deporting violent criminals) and protects law-abiding, hard-working immigrants (protecting them from deportation and defending a working asylum process).