Memo: Latino Voters in Arizona September 2025

This memo summarizes key findings from a statewide poll of 600 registered Latino voters in Arizona, conducted September 18-23, 2025. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.0 pp. This research was conducted by Equis Research in partnership with Progress Arizona and the Copper State Research Consortium.

Arizona has approximately 1.3 million eligible Latino voters — 25% of the state’s potential electorate — positioning Latino voters to once again play a decisive role in Arizona elections. 

This poll explores how Arizona's Latino voters are evaluating the current political landscape, including the state's gubernatorial race, economic priorities, immigration enforcement, and views on Trump's presidency.

1.  Governor Hobbs receives a modestly positive approval rating from Latino voters in Arizona and is trending slightly behind her 2022 support, but she shows notable strength among Trump voters.

Governor Katie Hobbs maintains a positive approval rating among Latino voters at 51-31 (+20). Her policy accomplishments, including some from the Arizona Promise Budget, are viewed positively across party lines:

• About 3-in-4 (74%) Arizona Latino voters consider free school meals and college scholarships for working-class students extremely/very important, followed by state trooper pay raises and funding to combat smuggling and trafficking (70% overall, and 75% among Latino Trump voters). 

Hobbs leads a generic Republican opponent 55-36 (+19). Per Catalist, Hobbs won Latino voters by a 64-36 margin in 2022. Notably, 14% of Trump supporters say they'll vote for Hobbs in 2026, compared to 8% who say they'll vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, suggesting her appeal could extend beyond the national party brand.

Down-ballot, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by a similar margin, 53-36 (+17).

2. The 2026 GOP field remains largely unknown to Latino voters in Arizona.

Potential Republican gubernatorial candidates have very low name recognition. Some 2-in-3 Latino voters are unable to rate Andy Biggs (he is viewed 16% favorable /18% unfavorable among those who can) and 74% are unable to rate Karrin Taylor Robson (12% fav / 14% unfav).

Name recognition is even lower among Spanish-speaking Latinos, where 71% have never heard of Biggs and 84% have never heard of Robson, compared to 62% and 68% respectively among mostly English-speaking Latinos. Since this poll was fielded, Rep. David Schweikert entered the gubernatorial race on September 30, adding a third major candidate to the GOP primary.¹

The low name recognition across the field, particularly among Spanish-speaking voters, leaves substantial room for candidate definition heading into 2026. 

3. Trump is underwater with Arizona Latino voters and about a third of his newest supporters disapprove of his performance, among other signs of potential defection from the Republican camp in 2026.

President Trump's approval rating among Arizona Latino voters stands at 36-58 (-22), compared to 34-63 (-29) nationally.² Notably, over one third (35%) of new Trump voters in Arizona – those who voted for Trump in 2024 but either voted for Biden in 2020 or did not vote in that election – disapprove of his performance. This is in line with national Equis polling from the summer, where a third (33%) of new Trump voters were disappointed in his performance and 18% outright regretted voting for him.³

As mentioned above, about 8% of Trump's Hispanic voters in Arizona say they'll vote for a congressional Democrat in 2026, and 14% say they'll support Hobbs for re-election. 

4. Economic anxieties dominate; broad support for proposals to lower the cost of living.

Nine months into Trump's presidency, economic concerns remain central for Latino voters in Arizona, who show high levels of support for a wide range of proposals to lower the cost of living.

When asked about the most important issue facing the country, cost of living and economic concerns rank at the top. Digging into these issues, food and grocery prices top budget concerns at 26%, followed by housing costs at 23% and healthcare costs at 17%.

Arizona Latinos show a wide range of support for proposals that aim to lower the cost of living. There is nearly universal support (94%) for lowering prescription drug costs – including 92% support among Trump voters. This is followed by: 

• 84% support for investigating price gouging on essentials
• 78% support for requiring data centers to pay higher electricity rates to lower utility costs
• 72% for support raising Arizona's minimum wage
• 64% for support preventing corporate investors from buying up homes

A slim majority (52%) also oppose the recent decision to eliminate renewable energy requirements; those rules would have mandated utility companies to get at least 15% of their energy from renewable sources like solar and wind.

5. Arizona Latinos express great concern about Trump's immigration enforcement policies, especially ICE raids at schools.

ICE raids at schools stand out as the most concerning part of Trump's immigration enforcement agenda: 72% of Latinos find these very concerning (80% somewhat/very concerning). This is followed by targeting immigrants with no criminal record (67% very concerning), and arresting immigrants at courthouses when they appear for hearings (66%). 

Notably, undecided Latino voters⁴ express even higher levels of concern on two key enforcement tactics: 79% about school raids and 77% about targeting immigrants with no criminal record.

Even among Trump voters, majorities find ICE raids at schools (56%) and targeting immigrants without criminal records (51%) to be very concerning. These enforcement tactics have crossed a line for most Latino voters and have begun to redefine the terms of the debate – recently dominated by border security – when it comes to immigration.

6. Party trust among all Latino voters varies by issue, with Democrats holding advantages on the cost of living and immigration reform, while Republicans lead on border security. But a majority of undecided Latinos trust Republicans to handle the economy. 

Democrats hold the advantage on who Latinos in Arizona trust to handle the cost of living (53-38, +15) and immigration reform (50-38, +12). Latino voters are essentially split on the economy (46-43, +3 Democrats), and Republicans maintain their traditional strength on border security (53-37, +16).

Among 2026 undecided voters, Democrats and Republicans are tied on cost of living (44-44), and Republicans hold a significant advantage on the economy (55-38, +17). Democrats maintain their advantage on immigration reform (44-28, +16), but Republicans double their advantage on the border (55-31, +34). 

That said, one in four undecided Latino voters has yet to choose which party they trust on these key issues, revealing room for growth for either party a year out from the midterm elections. 

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¹ Schweikert, who represents the competitive 1st Congressional District (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, northeast Phoenix), won his 2024 House race by just 3.8 points.

² Memo: Summer 2025 Latino Pulsecheck

³ Memo: Summer 2025 Latino Pulsecheck

⁴ Includes Latinos who are not sure they’ll vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate in their congressional district in 2026.