July 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy

Methodology: This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 1,614 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from July 7 to 17, 2025. This poll has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.

Latinos are facing significant everyday economic challenges, and are looking for relief in the places they feel the squeeze the most, from groceries to healthcare. They’re losing faith in Trump as a good businessman and in his ability to handle the economy. And they favor increasing taxes for billionaires and big corporations over cutting social programs as a way to offset spending – precisely the opposite of the Trump administration’s approach. But many maintain a “wait-and-see” posture: while Democrats gained trust on economic issues following the inauguration, there is a rising cynicism toward both major parties among swing Latino voters. 

1. As Trump discontent grows, a third of Latinos who supported him in November are not set on voting for a Republican in 2026.

Fewer Latinos approve of Trump’s job now (35%, to 63% disapprove) than in Equis polling from May (38%, to 60% disapprove). 

This Trump discontent is showing up in the generic congressional ballot. A lesser share of Latino Trump voters are set on voting for Republicans in 2026 than Latino Harris voters are on supporting Democrats in the midterm (67% vs. 86%). The former is driven by some switching (8% of Trump voters say they’ll vote for a Democrat) and lots of uncertainty (20% undecided).

Among the Latinos who supported Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024 – "Biden defectors" – Trump's approval rating continues to hover around 50%. In May, 46% of Biden defectors approved of Trump’s performance. In this poll, 50% of Biden defectors approve. 

Biden defectors are split in thirds on the generic congressional ballot: 31% say they’ll vote for a Democrat, 34% say a Republican, and 30% are undecided. Biden defectors were key to Trump’s gains among Latinos in 2024 and, by definition, 100% of them voted for Trump in November; today, half are telling us they disapprove of his job in office and only a third are set on voting for a Republican for Congress next November. 

2. While Latinos generally disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and give the current US economy a poor rating, a majority remain in “wait-and-see” mode.

A majority of Latinos (64%) rate the current U.S. economy as "somewhat or very poor." Only 34% view it as "somewhat or very good."

The economy was consistently Trump's top-rated issue during his first administration, usually outpacing his overall job approval. Today, approval of Trump on the economy is slightly worse than his overall approval (-31, with 34% approve to 65% disapprove) and on net has worsened since May (when it was -26). Economic approval among Biden defectors has remained stable and net negative since May (now -8, previously -6). 

Despite current dissatisfaction, Latinos are largely in a "wait-and-see” mode regarding the economy's future. While 15% believe it will "definitely get better," a combined 54% believe it will "probably get better but it’s too soon to know" (26%) or "probably get worse but it’s too soon to know" (28%). This “wait-and-see” posture is particularly evident among Biden defectors, though they lean towards optimism (52% "probably get better but it's too soon to know" and 28% “probably get worse but it’s too soon to know”).

3. The economy, a former Trump/GOP strength, continues to look more like a weakness – with signs that even Trump’s businessman image may be eroding.

Consistent with Equis findings from May, Democrats continue to be more trusted than Republicans on the cost of living (+19, up slightly from +15 in May) and the economy (+12, up slightly from +9). Last cycle, those tended to be GOP advantages. In Equis polling from December 2022, Latinos in battleground states trusted Republicans more on cost of living by a 5 point margin (48% Republicans, to 43% Democrats).

There are signs that Trump's businessman image may be eroding, especially among Biden defectors. While 34% of Latinos think Trump is a good businessman, and 44% say they don’t think he’s a good businessman, almost 1-in-5 (19%) say they used to think he was but don’t anymore (including 15% of Trump voters). Some 50% of Biden defectors still see Trump as a good businessman, but another 30% say they used to think he’s a good businessman and don’t anymore.

Republicans also continue to be seen as prioritizing the wealthy, core to the narrative that has kept most Hispanics voting for Democrats despite recent shifts. A majority (63%) believe Republicans put the interests of the rich ahead of those of working Americans.

4. Yes, but: Trump disapproval hasn’t transferred altogether into support for Democrats. Instead, swing Latinos are increasingly cynical about both parties.

Compared to May, Biden defectors are now significantly more likely to say they don’t trust either party to handle the economy and cost of living. In May, 18% of Biden defectors didn’t trust either party to handle the economy, and 12% didn’t trust either party on cost of living. Today, distrust for both parties sits at 29% and 25%, respectively. 

Half of Latinos say Democrats care more about people like them, versus 25% who say Republicans care more, and 17% who say neither party cares more. But Biden defectors are twice as likely to say neither party cares more about people like them (38%).

In May, 8% of Latino Trump voters were unsure which party they’d support in 2026; today, that number is 20%. Among Biden defectors, undecideds jumped from 17% to 30%. Meanwhile, those who are set on voting for a Democrat held steady among Trump voters (10% vs 8%) and appears to have declined among Biden defectors (38% vs 31%), though the sample size for Biden defectors is small.

Growing dissatisfaction with Trump offers Democrats an opportunity – but only if they are willing to capitalize on it.

5. Latinos continue to face significant everyday economic challenges, so it’s no surprise that they most want to see lower food and grocery costs, lower taxes for working people, and improved wages and benefits. 

Many Latinos are struggling financially, with 29% reporting "trouble meeting expenses" and 32% stating they "are able to just meet expenses with nothing left over." Just 1-in-10 Latinos report "living comfortably."

When asked to rank what is most important for lawmakers to address, Latinos prioritize easing those everyday burdens by lowering the cost of food and groceries, and lowering taxes for working and middle class people. They also want better pay and benefits for workers, more affordable and accessible healthcare and prescription drugs, and more good paying jobs.

In this rank-choice exercise, Latinos were less likely to prioritize economic policies that were more narrow in scope, like eliminating fees on credit cards and ticket sales or increasing financial support for small businesses. They were also less likely to give a high rank to debt cancellation, whether it be medical debt, credit card debt, or student debt.

6. There is overwhelming bipartisan support for increased taxes on billionaires and large corporations, with many Latinos believing corporations are artificially inflating prices for profit. 

A vast majority of Latinos (84%) believe that “a small wealthy elite” has too much power and influence in this country. Different terms yielded slightly different results (79% for “ultra wealthy”, 80% for “billionaires”, 74% for “oligarchy”), but the sentiment itself is clearly resonant for Latino voters, regardless of the particular term that’s used. This finding holds up even among Republicans: 81% agree that a small wealthy elite has too much power and influence in this country.

There is overwhelming support for increasing taxes on billionaires (81% support), big corporations (78% support), and the ultra wealthy (78% support). This support crosses partisan lines, with 73% of Republicans supporting increased taxes on billionaires, 72% on big corporations, and 70% for the ultra wealthy. Among Biden defectors, 88% support increasing taxes for billionaires, 75% for big corporations, and 84% for the ultra wealthy. There is also widespread rejection of tax breaks for big corporations, with 70% of Latinos supporting "ending loopholes and tax write-offs for big corporations," including 75% of Biden defectors.

The vast majority (87%) of Latinos agree that "greedy corporations are raising prices more than they need to just to increase their profits." This sentiment is strong even among Republicans (83% agree). (When phrased as "big" corporations, instead of greedy ones, support is a notch lower, at 81%.) 

7. Concerns about government spending cut across partisan lines, but Latinos generally prefer increasing taxes for billionaires and big corporations as a way to offset spending instead of cutting programs.

Almost all Latinos - 93% - say they are very or somewhat concerned about waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending, including 94% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans. 68% say the government’s spending is out of control and weakening our economy, including 76% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans.

Despite perceptions of out-of-control spending, Latinos strongly oppose cuts to social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (80% oppose), and food assistance programs like SNAP (76% oppose) as a way to offset costs, and a narrower majority (56%) oppose cuts to military and defense spending. Latinos also generally oppose cuts to research grants for colleges and universities (67% oppose), though opposition is strongest among Democrats and Independents.

The only expense that most Latinos support cutting is immigration enforcement (52% support), including 54% of Biden defectors.

8. Latinos are split on the long-term benefits of tariffs, but just 31% support tariff increases.

Latinos overall are split on whether tariffs will "benefit our country in the long run" even if they will "drive up costs in the short term" (46% agree, to 48% disagree). But there are strong differences by partisanship, with greater intensity from Republicans (+62 net agreement) than Democrats (-41 net disagreement). Independents, like Latinos generally, are more evenly split (+2 agree). Biden defectors’ beliefs on tariffs more closely follow Republicans’, with net agreement at +43. 

Regardless of their perception of the long-term impact, just 31% of Latinos support increasing tariffs on imported goods (58% oppose). Again, there are strong partisan differences, but in this case, the intensity is on the Democratic side: net support among Latino Democrats is -61 and net support among Latino Republicans is +29. Independents oppose increasing tariffs by a -22 point margin, but Biden defectors support it by a +12 point margin. 

Even among Latinos who believe in the long-term benefits of tariffs, only 55% support increasing them (35% oppose). For some Latinos, the long-term benefits may not be worth the short-term costs.