Memo: Summer 2025 Latino PulseCheck

This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 2,000 registered Hispanic voters, with an oversample in competitive congressional districts that are at least 10% Latino by eligible population. This poll was conducted July 21-31, 2025 and has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.

This "Pulse Check" is part of Equis’ ongoing series of in-house polls and qualitative research tracking Latino attitudes in key geographies. This year, Equis has also publicly released polls related to Latino views on the economy and immigration.

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1. A quarter of Latinos who supported Trump in November are either disappointed in his performance or outright regret voting for him and there are continued signs of potential defection from the Republican camp in 2026. 

When asked about voting for Donald Trump last year, 8% of Latino voters express outright regret, 19% are disappointed in the President, and 71% of Latino voters feel positively about their choice. 

Nationally, Democrats hold a 24 point lead in a generic congressional match-up: 53% of Latino voters say they would support the Democratic candidate vs. 29% who would support the Republican candidate in their district in 2026. That said, there is room for growth for either party, with 18% of Latino voters not yet falling into either camp. 

Currently, 11% of 2024 Latino Trump voters say they would vote for a Democrat in 2026, compared to 3% of Harris voters who would support a Republican candidate. 

2. Disappointment among Trump's 2024 voters appears driven by his administration's focus on mass deportations and lack of delivery on the economy. 

Voters who are disappointed in Trump or regret voting for him (26%) are most likely to cite his emphasis on mass deportations and lack of action on the economy as their main drivers. 

As one voter put it: “He did not do what he promised, like take out real criminals and not working families. Economy-wise, he is doing a lot of tariffs. It is hurting the economy.”

Or, more succinctly: “Mucho escándalo, poco progreso,” which translates to “Lots of scandal, not much progress.” 

The vast majority of Latino voters who are disappointed in Trump or regret voting for him disagree with raids at workplaces (79%), detention centers like “Alligator Alcatraz,” (76%) and allowing ICE agents to use masks and civilian clothes during immigration arrests (78%).

But border security remains a strength for Trump among voters who are otherwise disappointed in him. Trump receives a +39 rating on border security among voters who expressed disappointment or regret, but is -27 on his handling of immigration among them. Clearly, these voters believe that Trump is delivering when it comes to border security – a weakness for the previous administration – but think his actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far. 

3. Latino voters have not felt relief on top issues like the economy and cost of living and believe Trump has been focused on the wrong priorities. 

Most Latinos (58%) – including a third of New Trump voters– believe Trump "is more focused on going after hardworking immigrants and picking fights with colleges and foreign countries than on lowering the cost of living for hard-working people and their families," compared to 35% who believe that he "has focused on the right priorities and delivered on his campaign promises" 

In fact, Trump's worst approval rating is on handling the cost of living at 23-73 approve/disapprove (-50). This weak point for Trump follows the broader trend shown in previous Equis polling, where Latinos have shifted from trusting Republicans on handling the cost of living to trusting Democrats by a 19 point margin. 

And Trump’s overall approval 31-63 (-31) is down 7 points from previous Equis polling in April (-24). He also continues to receive a lower rating on the economy 29-67 (-38) than his overall performance as President (-31) – unlike in his first term where his approval on the economy typically outpaced his overall rating. 

4. The road ahead: Democrats hold a smaller lead among Latino voters in competitive congressional districts, are viewed tepidly, and are judged ineffective in stopping the Trump administration. 

In competitive congressional districts that are at least 10% Latino (by Citizen Voting Age Population), Democrats hold a narrower lead in the generic ballot: 47-36 (+11) as opposed to 53-29 (+24) nationally. Two-way Democratic support, after allocating the undecideds proportionally, is 57%, up 6 points from a 2024 support estimate for these same districts. But again, there are still plenty of Latino voters in play in these competitive districts – with 16% not yet choosing either party. 

Nationally, despite clear majority support for Democrats among Latinos, favorability for the party remains low: at 47-43 favorable/unfavorable (+3) – a 5 point drop compared to their net favorability rating in April 2025 (48-39, or +8). In the competitive House seats, Hispanic voters are evenly divided on the Democratic Party (47-48, or -1). 

The majority of Latino voters want to see Democrats stand up to the Trump administration, but many don’t yet see effective opposition. Instead, the plurality (38%) believe that Democrats “talk a lot about how dangerous Trump is but don't do anything to stop him,” compared to 25% who say Democrats are "doing what they can to check Trump's power." An even greater share – 43% – of undecided midterm voters share this sentiment that Democrats are not doing enough to stop Trump. 

5. Key tenets of the "Big Beautiful Bill" could prove a liability to Republicans among Latinos in the fall, if voters know about them.

The elements of the Republican bill that generate the strongest concern:

• giving tax cuts to wealthy Americans and corporations while cutting social programs, like Medicaid and SNAP (75% find this concerning); 
• increasing the budget for ICE and allowing for the indefinite detention of migrant families (75%); 
• and large cuts to Medicaid and restricting enrollment in the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare (73%). 

A slight majority of New Trump voters find these to be concerning as well. 

This is consistent with previous Equis polling that showed clear opposition to cuts to social programs despite perceptions of out-of-control government spending; Latinos strongly oppose cuts to social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (80% oppose), and food assistance programs like SNAP (76% oppose) as a way to offset costs. The July poll also found majority support (52%) for cutting immigration enforcement spending. 

That said, in recent Equis focus groups with swing Latino voters, participants expressed feeling torn between concerns about cuts to programs like SNAP and concerns about people who might take advantage of government programs. This sentiment reflected a broader tension for many of these swing voters between compassion and accountability: they felt caught between a Republican Party that seems indifferent to the impact of program cuts on hard-working people and a Democratic Party that does not do enough to ensure the efficiency and fairness of those programs.

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¹ Catalist’s What Happened in 2024 Report estimates two-way support among Latinos was 54% Harris - 46% Trump.

² These disagreement levels are roughly in line with the overall Latino electorate at 77%, 75% and 74% respectively. 

³ Equis Post-Mortem Poll fielded April 4-8 | 1,700 registered Hispanic voters

⁴ 2024 support estimate of competitive congressional districts with at least 10% Latino CVAP based on Catalist support estimates. 

⁵ Equis Post-Mortem Poll fielded April 4-8 | 1,700 registered Hispanic voters

⁶ According to a poll conducted by Priorities USA from 6/18-6/25/2025: when asked what they’d heard about the Republican budget bill, 61% of Latino voters told us “nothing.”