Trump and Republicans’ Broken Promises Message Testing

Methodology: Equis tested 5 messages with Grow Progress using randomized controlled trial (RCT) survey experiments to see which was best at shifting Democratic vote choice and vote likelihood. The messages were tested in English (n= 3,499) and in Spanish (n=2,387), according to the respondent’s preference. The test ran from September 8 to September 11 nationally with a Latino audience.

Equis polling from August shows that 42% of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now say they are disappointed or regret their vote, and many cite Trump and the Republicans’ broken campaign promises as a reason. This test was designed to determine whether voters’ sense of Trump’s broken promises could be turned into a persuasion message – shifting vote choice among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, and Latinos overall.

This test included 5 total messages – a catch-all broken promises message that included several of Trump’s campaign promises across issues, as well as 4 messages highlighting specific promises in an attempt to understand whether voters would be moved by the concept overall or if specific broken promises were driving discontent:

• America First — focused on broken promise to put America First and the war in Iran
• Costs — focused on broken promise to lower costs
• Immigration — focused on broken promise to deport dangerous/violent criminals
• Epstein — focused on broken promise to fully release the Epstein files

Overall Takeaways:

When messaging in Spanish, prioritize highlighting Trump and the Republicans’ failure to generally deliver on campaign promises to make communities safer, lower the cost of living, and put America First. Messages in Spanish that specifically highlight Trump’s broken promises to put America First and to fully release the Epstein files were also effective at increasing support for Democrats. Avoid messaging exclusively on the failure to deliver on costs, as it may have a negative effect on turnout.

• The “America First (Iran),” “Epstein,” and “General” messages performed best. They all significantly moved vote choice toward Democrats (+6pp*, +5pp*, and +4pp* respectively).
  
  • The “Costs” message raised possible issues among Latino voters overall in Spanish: while vote choice moved directionally toward Democrats (but not significantly), likelihood to vote dropped significantly by 6pp*, signaling it could depress turnout intent among Spanish-speaking Latinos.

When messaging in English, center the cost of living promises that Trump and the Republicans have broken, and their lack of delivery for working people under economic pressure.

• The “Costs” message outperformed the others on two separate metrics: Democratic vote choice (+3pp*) and likelihood to vote (+5pp*), and it was the only message to have statistically significant movement among all Latino voters in English.
  

To persuade Latino 2024 Trump voters in Spanish, focus on Trump and the Republicans’ lack of delivery on campaign promises to make communities safer, lower costs, and put America First. Messaging in Spanish that exclusively highlighted broken promises on putting America First was also effective at increasing support for Democrats among Trump voters. In English, focus on the war with Iran and the failure to put America first.

• Among Latino 2024 Trump voters, in Spanish, the “Costs” (+11pp*), “General” (+10pp*), and “America First (Iran)” (+9pp*) messages all produced significant swings in vote choice toward Democrats. In English, the “America First (Iran)” message moved this group by +5pp* toward Democrats. 

English Test Results

*Statistically significant with 95% confidence interval

Spanish Test Results

*Statistically significant with 95% confidence interval

Full Messages

General

Working families are doing everything they can, but Trump and Republicans continue to make it harder to get ahead. Trump promised he’d lower costs on day one, make communities safer, and put the interests of everyday Americans first, but he’s doing the exact opposite. Food, gas, utilities, and healthcare get more expensive every day, he’s targeting hardworking immigrants instead of prioritizing violent criminals, and he’s spending billions on wars abroad instead of focusing on our problems here at home. We deserve leaders who keep their promises.

Las familias trabajadoras están haciendo todo lo que pueden, pero Trump y los republicanos han hecho que poder salir adelante sea cada vez más difícil. Trump prometió que reduciría los costos desde el primer día, que haría las comunidades más seguras y que pondría primero los intereses de los estadounidenses comunes, pero está haciendo lo contrario. La comida, la gasolina, los servicios y la atención médica se encarecen cada día, está atacando a inmigrantes trabajadores en vez de priorizar a criminales violentos y está gastando miles de millones en guerras extranjeras en vez de enfocarse en nuestros problemas internos. Merecemos líderes que cumplan sus promesas.

America First (Iran)

Working families are doing everything they can, but Trump and Republicans continue to make it harder to get ahead. Trump promised he would put America first. But so far, he’s spent over $30 billion taxpayer dollars on a war in Iran instead of prioritizing our problems here at home. We deserve leaders who keep their promises, fight to end senseless wars, and put American families first.

Las familias trabajadoras están haciendo todo lo que pueden, pero Trump y los republicanos han hecho que poder salir adelante sea cada vez más difícil. Trump prometió que pondría a los Estados Unidos primero. Pero hasta ahora, ha gastado más de $30 mil millones de dólares de nuestros impuestos en una guerra en Irán en vez de priorizar nuestros problemas internos. Merecemos líderes que cumplan sus promesas, luchen por acabar con guerras absurdas y pongan primero a las familias estadounidenses.

Costs

Working families are doing everything they can, but Trump and Republicans continue to make it harder to get ahead. Trump promised he would lower costs on day one. But instead, we’re paying more for food, gas, utilities, and healthcare, and his tariffs are making everything even more expensive while he gives tax breaks to the wealthy elite. We deserve leaders who keep their promises and fight to lower everyday costs for working families.

Las familias trabajadoras están haciendo todo lo que pueden, pero Trump y los republicanos han hecho que poder salir adelante sea cada vez más difícil. Trump prometió que reduciría los costos desde el primer día. Pero en cambio, pagamos más por comida, gasolina, servicios y atención médica, y sus aranceles están encareciendo todo aún más mientras que le ha dado recortes de impuestos a la élite adinerada. Merecemos líderes que cumplan sus promesas y luchen por reducir los costos de las familias trabajadoras.

Immigration

Working families are doing everything they can, but Trump and Republicans continue to make it harder to get ahead. Trump promised to deport violent and dangerous criminals to make our communities safer. Instead, he’s targeting hardworking immigrants who have been contributing to our communities for years and separating families. We deserve leaders who keep their promises and who are focused on actually keeping our communities safe.

Las familias trabajadoras están haciendo todo lo que pueden, pero Trump y los republicanos han hecho que poder salir adelante sea cada vez más difícil. Trump prometió deportar a criminales violentos y peligrosos para hacer nuestras comunidades más seguras. En cambio, está atacando inmigrantes trabajadores que han contribuido a nuestras comunidades durante años y separando familias. Merecemos líderes que cumplan sus promesas y que se enfoquen en mantener a nuestras comunidades realmente seguras.

Epstein

Working families are doing everything they can, but Trump and Republicans continue to make it harder to get ahead. During his campaign, Trump said that the government was run by powerful people hiding the truth from Americans and promised he would declassify and release the Epstein files. Instead, he only released a limited amount of information to protect his powerful friends and allies. We deserve leaders who keep their promises and tell us the truth.

Las familias trabajadoras están haciendo todo lo que pueden, pero Trump y los republicanos han hecho que poder salir adelante sea cada vez más difícil. Durante su campaña, Trump dijo que el gobierno estaba dirigido por personas poderosas que ocultaban la verdad a los estadounidenses y prometió desclasificar y divulgar los archivos de Epstein. Sin embargo, sólo publicó una cantidad limitada de información para proteger a sus poderosos amigos y aliados. Merecemos líderes que cumplan sus promesas y nos digan la verdad.