Election Analysis

This memo summarizes key findings from a statewide poll of 600 registered Latino voters in Arizona, conducted September 18-23, 2025. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.0 pp. This research was conducted by Equis Research in partnership with Progress Arizona and the Copper State Research Consortium. Arizona has approximately 1.3 million eligible Latino voters — 25% of the state’s potential electorate — positioning Latino voters to once again play a decisive role in Arizona elections. This poll explores how Arizona's Latino voters are evaluating the current political landscape, including the state's gubernatorial race, economic priorities, immigration enforcement, and views on Trump's presidency.

This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 2,000 registered Hispanic voters, with an oversample in competitive congressional districts that are at least 10% Latino by eligible population. This poll was conducted July 21-31, 2025 and has a margin of error of ± 2 pp

In this battleground poll fielded August 19th - August 31st, Equis checked in on the preferences of Latino voters in the presidential race and looked at some perceptions of the candidates.

The very early polling on a Harris-Trump election suggests a reset in the fight over Latino voters. The Hispanic electorate now looks more in line with the other Trump-era elections of 2020 and 2022 than with a wide partisan realignment.

A high-level analysis of Latino voter trends in the 2022 election.

To help reporters and advocates contextualize the Latino vote in the last days of the 2022 midterm election.

Insights from a study of social and psychological factors that impact voting, along with a segmentation of Latino non-voters, both based on a national poll of 2,800 eligible Latino voters.

Ideas for organizers to consider in their programs to mobilize Latinos. They build on results from a national poll of 2,800 eligible Latino voters that looked to identify actionable factors to explain the Latino turnout gap.

Part Two of a post-mortem on the Latino vote in the 2020 election.

A post-mortem of the Latino vote in the 2020 election, specifically geared toward (a) documenting where Trump and the GOP made gains with Latino voters (and where they didn’t), and (b) trying to explain that movement.

Some resources on the LatAm vote for observers in the media or in advocacy groups.

A survey of Cuban-American voters in Florida conducted in November 2019, along with focus groups from both (September 2019) and (June 2020).

Equis and Targetsmart fielded a hybrid SMS/phone survey in 11 states in the early months of the COVID pandemic (April 20-May 6, 2020).

The Equis Research team is digging into its data to provide context on the Latinx vote in 2020’s presidential election. This is the first post in the series.

The Equis Research team is digging into its data to provide context on the Latinx vote in 2020's presidential election. This is the second post in the series.

A snapshot of the political views of Hispanic women, on presidential vote choice and motivation to vote.

In this survey, Trump's character is an issue. Latino voters across the board signal they are most concerned about his moral character and stance on immigration.

In this survey, Latino support for Trump wanes as Hispanics from across all surveyed states say discrimination has gotten worse under the administration. Latinas continue to lead.

An overview of the largest Latinx-focused research project of the 2020 cycle.

In summer 2019, Equis Research and Somos Votantes launched the Latinx Polling Exchange -- a deep research project focused on creating a better understanding of Latinx voters in 2020 and beyond. Our baseline poll surveyed 8,100 registered voters in 11 states (NM, NV, CO, AZ, TX, FL, NC, VA, MI, WI and key CA districts).

Survey conducted 10/15 – 10/29 via phones and text-to-web with 2000 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally. The sample included an oversample in the following pooled competitive congressional districts (all 10%+ Latino CVAP): CA-03, CA-09, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-40, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, AZ- 01, AZ-06, NV-03, NM-02, CO-08, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35, TX-15, NJ-07, NJ-09, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, PA-07, PA-08. The national sample was weighted to match the composition of registered voters modeled as Latino by state, gender, age, education, and 2024 vote recall. The sample was also weighted by age, education, 2024 vote recall by gender, and geography, to match the composition of registered voters modeled as Latino in each state with a sample size of 175+ (CA, FL, TX), in the Mid-Atlantic region (DE, MD, PA, NJ, and NY) and the Southwest region (AZ, CO, NM, and NV). Language of interview, place of origin, education and other variables were monitored during the fielding. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish, according to the respondent’s preference. MoE is ~2.0 % for the full sample, ~6.0% for FL, the Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest, ~5.0% for TX, and ~4.0% for CA.

An update on Latino voters, fielded after the first Presidential Debate featuring Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Including electoral persuasion and mobilization spending in Presidental, Senate, and House races on Facebook, Google, Snapchat, Linear and CTV launched on or after 2024-07-22.